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At this point, it’s a question of He will?Or He will? As the field for 2024 begins to shape, ex-President Donald Trump is at the top of the Republican pile.
As he prepares for his comeback, the former leader quietly polls his donors and backers. Trump has been taking informal polls of his backers and donors by phone and at golf courses in Florida and New Jersey. The gabfests also include free-flowing meals where he can share his ideas and receive praise for his skills. Trump went as far to say that he would tell. New York magazine that he’s made a decision and the only question for him was when to announce.
“Well, in my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore. In my own mind, I’ve already made that decision,” Trump told the magazine. “I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after,” he said, basing his B.C. and A.D. fulcrum on this November’s midterm elections.
So, there is the low-groaning anxiety at the Capitol Hill Club’s grill. This cozy Republicans-only club was created. If Trump is now in the race, that’s a huge suck on the finite political oxygen available to GOP candidates on the ballot this year—not to mention a hit on Republican fundraising given how Trump is likely to hoover up millions that House and Senate candidates need more immediately. Trump is likely to make his own ego a bigger problem than the rest of the GOP.
Republicans can, however, see that Trump’s 2024 bid could at least divert Trump from his incessant ruminations about his 2020 defeat. Trump should get moving on to a new project as soon as possible and drop his previous failed project. This will help Republicans in this fall’s chances of making a good showing.
Trump will be the one to beat in the slow march toward 2024 as the starting gun. No one else in mainstream candidates has Trump’s level of recognition and access to donor lists. He also understands what drives the Republican Party, something that is unique in this mainstream. Trump’s hold over the modern GOP is as remarkable as it is shocking, and many party insiders question if there is anyone who could deny him the nomination, including any of the prosecutors circling him and his businesses. Unlike other candidates, he doesn’t need a long runway to take off; he begins as an Elon-Musk-like creation ready to rocket straight up.
Still, though, Republicans are not in universal agreement about Trump’s place in the field. Numerous public polls show that Trump is preferred by roughly half the Republicans. This suggests that there could be a compromise alternative. This could be a replay of 2016 when Trump was the favorite in a field fractured by Not-Trump candidates until Ted Cruz’s last stand at Indiana.
Several of Trump’s likely rivals have started their own posturing ahead of 2024, telling donors and potential staff that they will not make their determinations based solely on Trump’s plans. Early-nominating states like New Hampshire and Nevada have already started seeing those would-be candidates show up at party dinners and picnics, courting activists who can make—or break—candidacies based on parochial whims.
Those candidates make sure to follow the campaign finance laws. After a potential candidate declares their candidacy, all restrictions and requirements are put in place. These include limits on fundraising as well as requirements regarding disclosures.
Trump seems to have no place in a box on any of these issues. Many Republicans are not happy about this because Trump could start his own campaign right away, making him the story of the year. So far, many Republican strategists are telling their clients on ballots this year that they can keep 2024 discussions at arm’s length. Many have stated that, without knowing the name of the running candidate, they are irreverent. These pat answers won’t suffice once Trump has entered the race. The candidates will have to have a take on his candidacy, and a full embrace could be simultaneously required to keep the party’s base happy and disqualifying with moderate voters who, at least right now, are plenty sour on how Democrats in control of Washington have spent the last two years.
Time and time again, the Republican Party has proven that it is possible to be a Republican Party. It Trump is either unwilling or unable to be controlled. The Republican National Committee never found a way to curb Trump’s impulses as candidate and it remains as loyal as ever to him. He remains an RNC fundraising machine. The RNC also pays Trump’s legal expenses and insures that he gets his products. This is an unusual arrangement which has made some insiders uncomfortable. Trump will, in other words.
Trump seems to have one point of view that is getting across to him, and it’s one that is centered on his ego. Trump is willing to take on that responsibility if Republicans fail in November. It’s not that he much cares how his party fares in broad terms. This man is desperate and enjoys being a winner. Anything that diminishes that—including some dodgy primary endorsements this cycle—threatens his self-image. There may also be enough uncertainty for him to remain undeclared until this year’s votes are counted.
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