Brazilians will soon have the opportunity, after three turbulent decades, to elect their far-right President Jair Bosonaro or defeat him. Elections are scheduled for October 2022. candidates are launching their campaigns and the race to lead the world’s fourth-largest democracy is heating up. His approval rating has fallen to an all-time low, indicating that he may be facing trouble. 19%Late November saw 60% of people saying that he does a terrible job.
Bolsonaro, who has been criticised for its destructive environment policies in Amazonia and denialist attitude on COVID-19, has been the subject of headlines all over the globe the past two year. By discouraging social distancing and rejecting offers from vaccine manufacturers to buy badly-needed doses, the president has helped Brazil’s official COVID-19 death toll reach more than 600,000—second only to that of the U.S.
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But Bolsonaro’s struggles at home stem largely from the current squeeze on Brazilian wallets, analysts say. A surging inflation rate and an unprecedented drought have stifled recovery from the pandemic, and Brazil’s economy entered a technical recession this month. The currency, the reais, is trading at all-time lows against the dollar, with many blaming the president’s market-rattling decision to flout Brazil’s fiscal rules in order to introduce a new cash-transfer program for poorer families in time for the election.
Bolsonaro’s poor economic performance has boosted an unexpected comeback by former leftist president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent polls suggest that if elections were held today, Lula would win 46% of the votes to Bolsonaro’s 23%.
“Bolsonaro has very little chance at re-election unless economic conditions improve a lot,” says Gustavo Ribeiro, a São Paulo-based political analyst and founder of English-language news site Brazilian Report. “But we’re still 10 months away, and he has proved that he has more political lives than a cat.”
Whatever Bolsonaro’s prospects, Brazil’s election year is shaping up to be a tense one. The president repeatedly stated that he would not accept results if they were to be lost in recent months. “I’m not worried about staying president,” he told local media in August. “My message is: only God takes me out of that post.”
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The stakes are high for the country’s relatively-new democracy. Brazil had a military dictatorship in place from 1964 to 1985. Bolsonaro is an open supporter of the military dictatorship and has extended presidential power limits throughout his term. Bolsonaro has replaced the federal police chiefs who were responsible for leading investigations into his family. He also used national security laws against critics. And he issued controversial presidential decrees on anything from social media moderation to indigenous land rights. Many of these moves were blocked by the supreme court as they are illegal. Bolsonaro summoned thousands of supporters in September to protest against the court’s independence, in an alarming challenge to its judiciary. Brazilian media drew parallelsTo the January 6th insurrection at U.S. Capitol.
Ribeiro fears such attacks on Brazil’s institutions would only intensify during a second Bolsonaro term. ”We find ourselves at a very dangerous crossroads,” he says. “This is someone who at every turn tries to chip away the credibility of institutions and accountability instruments. Both from a democratic standpoint and from an economic standpoint, I don’t know how we survive four more years.”
Brazil’s ability to find out the results of four additional years of Bolsonaro will be determined by the health of Brazil’s economy, the strengths of his candidates, and possibly how Bolsonaro prepares his supporters.
The stakes are high for the country’s relatively-new democracy. Brazil had a military dictatorship in place from 1964 to 1985. Bolsonaro, a strong supporter for the military dictatorship in Brazil, has stretched the boundaries of presidential powers during his tenure. His federal police chiefs, who had been charged with conducting probes into his relatives, were replaced by Bolsonaro. They also made use of national security laws for persecuting critics. Additionally, he has issued numerous controversial presidential decrees on issues ranging from Indigenous land rights and social media moderation. Many of these actions were blocked by the supreme Court as illegal. Bolsonaro summoned thousands of supporters in September to protest against the court’s independence, challenging it to be independent. Brazilian media drew parallelsThe January 6, insurrection at U.S. capital.
Ribeiro fears such attacks on Brazil’s institutions would only intensify during a second Bolsonaro term. ”We find ourselves at a very dangerous crossroads,” he says. “This is someone who at every turn tries to chip away the credibility of democratic institutions and accountability instruments. Both from a democratic standpoint and from an economic standpoint, I don’t know how we survive four more years.”
Brazil’s ability to find out the results of four additional years of Bolsonaro will be determined by the health of Brazil’s economy, the strengths of his candidates, and possibly how Bolsonaro prepares his supporters.
The stakes are high for the country’s relatively-new democracy. Brazil had a military dictatorship in place from 1964 to 1985. Bolsonaro, a strong supporter for the military dictatorship in Brazil, has overstepped the boundaries of presidential powers during his tenure. Bolsonaro has led probes into his relatives with federal police chiefs, used national security laws against critics, and has issued controversial presidential decrees on anything from Indigenous land rights to moderation of social media. Many of these actions were denied by the supreme Court. Bolsonaro, a disturbing challenge to the independence of the judiciary, called thousands to organize nationwide protests against Bolsonaro in September. Brazilian media drew parallelsThe January 6, insurrection at U.S. capital.
Ribeiro fears such attacks on Brazil’s institutions would only intensify during a second Bolsonaro term. ”We find ourselves at a very dangerous crossroads,” he says. “This is someone who at every turn tries to chip away the credibility of democratic institutions and accountability instruments. Both from a democratic standpoint and from an economic standpoint, I don’t know how we survive four more years.”
Brazil’s ability to find out the results of four additional years of Bolsonaro will be determined by the health of Brazil’s economy, the strengths of his candidates, and possibly how Bolsonaro prepares his supporters.
Brazil’s economic crisis
To economists’ surprise Brazil’s rightwing government rolled out South America’s most generous cash-transfer program during the pandemic, giving vulnerable families around 375 reais ($67) a month. Those payments helped boost Bolsonaro’s popularity and when they expired in October, the president announced a plan for a new welfare scheme, which will permanently increase state support for around 17 million poor households in time for the election.
The new payments won’t be enough to ease the many economic problems that Brazilians feel. The 12.6% unemployment rate is still stubbornly high. However, inflation has declined a quarter of the reais’ valueSince the beginning of 2020, against the dollar A Published Dec. 8, 2008 in the Survey Quaest pollsters found that 70% of Brazilians believe the economy is worsening over the past year. 41% also think economic performance will be a major factor in their decision to vote in 2022.
Bolsonaro has decided to end fiscal rules in Brazil to ensure that the budget deficit is under control. This will allow him to continue his assistance and keep investors happy. That streak of economic populism—combined with international reputational damage Brazil’s agricultural sector is suffering over deforestation in the Amazon—has soured relationships with the business elites and the conservative media that helped Bolsonaro get elected in 2018.
Lula’s comeback and the search for a third way candidate
In April this year, Brazil’s supreme court overturned the 2017 corruption conviction of former president Lula, clearing the way for him to run for president again. Lula, who is set to be the candidate for the leftist Workers Party (PT), is one of the most divisive figures in modern Brazil—perhaps second only to Bolsonaro—and his entry into the race leaves Brazilians with an extremely polarizing choice.
Lula held the office of president from 2003 to 2010. This period was a time of booming commodities in Brazil. Lula’s government gained huge popularity by creating welfare programs to lift millions from poverty. But the PT also oversaw one of the world’s largest corruption schemes during that period, with billions of dollars going missing from state oil company Petrobras (Lula has always denied personal responsibility for the graft network and claims charges against him, relating to the receipt of a seaside apartment as a bribe, were politically motivated.). According to A November poll from digital news site Poder 360, 42% of Brazilians say they will never vote for Lula—though the rejection rate is even higher for Bolsonaro and many centrist candidates.
Lula has offered little in the way of a policy platform, instead focusing on presenting himself as a source of stability and moderation against Bolsonaro’s disruption. “The polarization is not between Lula and Bolsonaro: the polarization is between Bolsonaro and everyone else,” Lula toldThis week at Reuters.
He has fiercely criticized the current president’s “genocidal” COVID-19 mismanagement. He traveled to Europe in November and received aWarmest welcome from leaders like French president Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s incoming chancellor Olaf Scholz, bolstering his presidential credentials. Lula’s team has indicated interest in selecting a center-right running mate—potentially even a former electoral opponent—in a bid to win over rightwing moderates who are unsatisfied with Bolsonaro.
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Brazil’s political and economic elites hope that Bolsonaro will challenge Lula at the center. The media has given ample coverage to the potential campaigns of, among others, São Paulo governor João Doria, and anti-corruption judge Sérgio Moro, who convicted Lula in 2017 before going on to serve briefly as Bolsonaro’s justice minister. It’s possible such a candidate could beat out Bolsonaro in the first round of voting on Oct. 2 and head into the second round with Lula later in the year, Ribeiro says.
Third-way candidates have been successful so far Polling has been difficult for them to crack the top 10.. Even though Bolsonaro and Lula are highly polarizing, they can only be used to make people feel good. around 12%Many voters said they wouldn’t vote for one.
“The two main forces that will drive this election are anti-Bolsonaro and anti-PT [sentiments],” says Thomas Traumann, an independent political consultant and former Brazilian communications minister. “People will vote for whoever seems capable of defeating the candidate they don’t like.”
Attacks on election integrity
Bolsonaro seems to be helping his supporters reject the results of the 2022 elections if they do not vote for him. In documentsLeaked this week federal police officers accused the president of a “direct and relevant” role in spreading election misinformation during social media livestreams. In JulyHe told the Brazilian radio station: that he wanted Brazil’s electronic voting system to be supplemented with paper receipts, claiming, without evidence, that there is a large risk of voter fraud. “If this method continues, they’re going to have problems,” he said. “Because one side, which is our side, may not accept the result.”
Numerous people have noted strong parallels to Donald Trump’s discourse in the lead-up to 2020. The September issue ofA group ofBolsonaro’s plan to incite a Jan. 6-style rebellion was warned by 158 leaders in 27 countries. This could lead to more severe consequences in a country that has weaker institutions, and is a young democracy.
Most analysts agree it’s unlikely that the military would support a coup in Brazil today: in May, the ministers of all three of Brazil’s armed forces tendered their resignations during a perceived attempt by the president to Politize the Armed Forces
But there is a significant risk of violence and upheaval in Brasília if Bolsonaro calls on his core supporters, many of whom are in the military, to respond to election results with protests, Traumann warns. “The difference to Trump is that Bolsonaro doesn’t just have strangely-dressed [civilians] going to the streets: a great part of the military thinks that elections are good, but not if Lula wins,” he says. “We’re in for some very difficult days.”
