What Happens to Truth Social After Elon Musk’s Twitter Deal?

Conservatives on Twitter are celebrating a potential turning of the tide in the wake of Elon Musk’s deal to buy the social media platform–and many of them this week are heralding the departure of liberal users by mockingly tweeting trending hashtags like #ByeTwitterAnd #LeavingTwitter.

“Prepare for blue check mark full scale meltdown after @elonmusk seals the deal and I should get my personal Twitter account restored,” tweeted Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, whose personal account was permanently suspended earlier this year for spreading COVID-19 misinformation.

Musk’s $44 billion deal with Twitter has led to increased speculation over whether the billionaire Tesla CEO, a self-described “free speech absolutist,” plans to reinstate the accounts of prominent conservatives like Greene and, most notably, former President Donald Trump on the social media site. Musk’s purchase, which won’t be finalized until October, has also left a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the fate of Trump’s own alternative social platform, TRUTH Social.

TRUTH Social did not immediately respond to TIME’s request for comment on how a Musk-owned Twitter, with fewer speech restraints and less content moderation might affect the growth of its service. TRUTH aims to draw Trump supporters as well as people unhappy about its crackdowns against hate, harassment and misinformation, such that it is struggling to get subscribers.

Trump has spoken out about Musk’s purchase of Twitter.

Following the announcement of Musk’s deal on Monday, Trump told Fox News that, regardless of Musk’s takeover, he will not return to Twitter after being permanently banned “due to the risk of further incitement of violence”Following the January 6, 2021 rebellion at the U.S. Capitol. The former president said he will instead remain on TRUTH Social, a free-speech-centric platform he created last fall under the umbrella of his new media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG).

“I am not going on Twitter, I am going to stay on TRUTH,” Trump said the day the deal was announced. “I hope Elon buys Twitter because he’ll make improvements to it and he is a good man, but I am going to be staying on TRUTH.”

How is Musk’s deal affecting TRUTH Social?

Monday’s news was followed by a spike in downloads for both TRUTH Social and Twitter. Forbes reports that, before the deal was announced, TRUTH Social was ranked 52nd on Apple’s App download chart while Twitter was 39th. TRUTH Social had risen to No. 1 on the App download chart by Tuesday. Twitter was second at No. 2. According to Sensor Tower data, downloads for TRUTH social jumped to 75,000 during the week of April 18-25. This is a 150% rise over the previous week.

But a “brief flurry of interest” in TRUTH Social isn’t a predictor of overall success, says Jonathan Nagler, co-director of NYU’s Center for Social Media and Politics. He says the platform’s lengthy waitlist, reported to be nearing 1.5 million people earlier this month, could deter users from returning to TRUTH Social after they sign up.

“There might be a day where there’s a relatively high number of downloads,” he says. “But if people setting up accounts aren’t getting access to the app, is it worth their time to go back and try again?”

What does TRUTH Social’s future look like?

Renewed enthusiasm for Twitter among right-wing users could bode ill for TRUTH Social at a precarious moment for the platform, which was designed to be the “first major rival to ‘Big Tech.’”

The news already seems to be redirecting the attention of those users back to Twitter, with NBC News reporting that follower counts for some Twitter accounts on the political right, including Greene’s, skyrocketed after reports of Musk’s deal surfaced.

TRUTH Social’s February 21 launch has seen numerous reports about technical issues, outages and a long waitlist for members. Ahead of the recent upswing, downloads of the app declined nearly 97% from the week following the site’s launch to the week of April 11-18, according to Sensor Tower. The company also lost two key executives: Josh Adams, the chief technology officer, and Billy Boozer (head of product development).

Trump has posted only once to TRUTH. His 1.89 million followers are a tiny fraction of Trump’s peak following of over 80 million. “Get Ready! Your favorite President will see you soon!” he wrote in February.

Musk’s acquisition of Twitter initially seemed to spell financial trouble for TRUTH. Shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp., the special purpose acquisition company set up to take TMTG public, plunged 13% after news of the sale broke on Monday, continuing a sharp slide that’s seen the blank check company lose nearly a third of its value since the beginning of the year.

Despite TRUTH’s challenges, Trump further explained to Fox why he has no intention of rejoining Twitter. “[TRUTH is] taking in millions of people, and what we’re finding is that the response on TRUTH is much better than being on Twitter,” he said. “The bottom line is, no, I am not going back to Twitter.”

If Trump is allowed back on Twitter, his best bet to jumpstart TRUTH Social might be to use his “megaphone” on Twitter to promote his own site, Nagler says.

“He could use Twitter for one day to tell all the people who follow him, ‘Go to TRUTH Social. I’m really there,’” Nagler says. “Maybe that would drive enough people to TRUTH Social that it would become large enough for people to find a reason to be there.”

Trump said on Monday that he will begin posting more “TRUTHs” over the next week. However, it remains to see if that will suffice in order to revitalize the platform. “We’re dealing with a lot of maybes,” says Nagler. “What this ultimately means for TRUTH Social is a bit opaque.”

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