Study shows what would happen if China dealt with Covid like US — Analysis
According to a study, China would experience hundreds of thousands of infections daily if it abandoned its zero-Covid-19 economic policy.
Peking University researchers in Beijing made the unsettling prediction. They crunched numbers to determine how large a Covid-19 outbreak China could experience if they adopted policies similar to those of Western countries. The prediction was made using factors like vaccination uptake and population density. References were taken from the USA, UK, Israel and Spain.
Beijing’s current approach aimed at preventing domestic circulation of the virus includes the strict control of international travel and the imposition of quarantines to stamp out local case clusters. A more relaxed approach would replace it. “real possibility of a colossal outbreak, which would almost certainly induce an unaffordable burden to the medical system,”The researchers agreed.
China could be infected with as many as 637.155 daily, according to the US. This includes 22364 severe cases, as the study suggests. If it followed the UK’s lead, China could record 275,793 daily infections and 9,680 severe daily infections, it said. These estimates were based upon optimistic assumptions regarding natural immunity and the ability to develop it in patients not vaccinated.
China “should not, and cannot afford”The authors suggested that the author’s overconfidence in dropping the current Covid-19 policies was a reason for their decision. “More efficient vaccinations or more specific treatment, [and] preferably the combination of both, are needed before entry-exit quarantine measures and other Covid-19 response strategies in China can be safely lifted.”
China CDC Weekly was the publication that published the report. This was days after Bloomberg.com published a harsh article accusing Beijing of preventing the recovery of global economic growth due to Covid-19.
China’s Covid Zero policies are standing in the way of a full recovery for the shipping industry and prolonging a crisis that’s snarled ports and emptied shelves worldwide https://t.co/waBvXYWjAh
— Bloomberg Asia (@BloombergAsia) November 28, 2021
Health restrictions imposed by the world’s biggest exporter “cause knock-on effects”Guy Platten was the International Chamber of Shipping’s secretary general. He spoke about delays in shipping from China due to its Zero-Tolerance policy on Covid-19. “Any restrictions to ship operations have an accumulative impact on the supply chain and cause real disruptions,” Platten said.