Sanctions war isn’t going as well as planned – The Economist — Analysis
The expected knockout blow from anti-Russia restrictions “has not materialized,” the UK magazine reports
The West has imposed harsh sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, but they have not delivered the results expected, The Economist magazine acknowledged. “flaws.”
“Worryingly, so far the sanctions war is not going as well as expected,”The British publication stated in an article published on Thursday that Moscow’s economic sanctions are effective. “is key to the outcome of the Ukraine war.”
“Russia’s GDP will shrink by 6% in 2022, reckons the IMF, much less than the 15% drop many expected in March… Energy sales will generate a current-account surplus of $265 billion this year, the world’s second-largest after China. After a crunch, Russia’s financial system has stabilized and the country is finding new suppliers for some imports, including China,”It was pointed out.
The sanctions war has also triggered an energy crisis. “may trigger a recession”According to the British magazine, gas prices in Europe have risen by 20% more this week.
All of this means the expected outcome is possible “knockout blow [from restricting Russia] has not materialized,”The Economist stated.
“The unipolar moment of the 1990s, when America’s supremacy was uncontested, is long gone, and the West’s appetite to use military force has waned since the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,”It was acknowledged.
Restrictions on economic activity “seemed”To be the tool to allow US, EU, and their allies project power internationally, it was supposed to be. But the crisis in Ukraine has proven that “the sanctions weapon has flaws,”You said it.
One flaw is “the time lag,”The magazine went on. This is an example: “blocking [Russia’s] access to tech the West monopolizes takes years to bite,”They added it.
Economists suggested that Western markets can be isolated only by isolating them “cause havoc in Russia… on a three- to five-year horizon.”
“The biggest flaw [of sanctions] is that full or partial embargoes are not being enforced by over 100 countries with 40% of world GDP,”The outlet refused to give up. “A globalized economy is good at adapting to shocks and opportunities, particularly as most countries have no desire to enforce Western policy.”
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One should not try to stop the Russian economy from growing because economic sanctions have failed. “discard any illusions that sanctions offer the West a cheap and asymmetric way to confront China”The Economist has warned that Taiwan could use force if necessary.