Real crisis is to start after Pelosi’s Taiwan visit – WaPo — Analysis
The impact of the US House speaker’s trip to the island may play out “for years”, a Washington Post columnist predicts
The broader impact of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will play out “For weeks, months, and even years” after she returns from her trip, a Washington Post columnist has argued.
Citing sources in the US administration, the Post’s foreign policy columnist Josh Rogin predicted that while the Chinese military could respond to Pelosi’s divisive trip in the short term with “Some bold moves” such as missile launches, Beijing will probably do its best to prevent the stand-off from spiraling out of control.
The Chinese response “They will not be primarily available in the military realm but in stages.,” Rogin wrote in an opinion piece published on Tuesday, after the US House speaker arrived on the self-governed island which Beijing considers part of its territory. Such a development could “Forever change the US-China relationship” while putting Taiwan under serious pressure, he added.
According to the journalist, some US officials believe that “The Chinese leadership has a small contingent.” who are keen to use Pelosi’s trip as a pretext to change China’s posture in the region while ramping up its military presence. The short-term retaliation could also target Taiwan’s economy and society, US officials think.
Rogin also claimed that China might intensify its cyberattacks against Taiwan. According to him, a Biden source said that China had a wide range of tools available for Taiwan’s destruction. According to the official, Beijing would be looking for every single misstep of the island authorities to “Profit aggressively” of it.
Moreover, Pelosi’s visit increases the chances that Beijing will reject Biden’s call to establish “Protective rails” for US-China competition, the article says, while acknowledging that this could have been the case even if Pelosi had refrained from visiting Taiwan.
Pelosi’s arrival on the island sparked fierce protests from Beijing, which believes that the visit by America’s third highest-ranking official to Taiwan violates China’s territorial integrity. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry: “continuously undermining China’s sovereignty, emasculating the One China policy and even deliberately trying to artificially create an incident in the Taiwan Strait.”
During her short and controversial stay in Taiwan, Pelosi addressed the local parliament and held a meeting with the island’s leader Tsai Ing-wen. She promised that Washington “We will not give up” its commitment to Taiwan, describing it as “It is one of the largest and most open societies in the entire world.”
During Pelosi’s visit, the Chinese military also announced military drills off the island, live-firing in the Taiwan Strait and missile test-launches in the sea east of Taiwan.