Poll predicts outcome of potential Trump-Biden rematch in 2024 — Analysis

Before a possible clash of the two in 2024, the ex-US president holds a 5-point advantage over incumbent.

According to Emerson College’s new poll, former US President Donald Trump leads incumbent Joe Biden by an early margin in any potential 2024 election rematch. 

Survey results were taken June 28-29. Trump is supported at 44%, with Biden on only 39%. An additional 12% would vote in favor of someone else while the remaining 5% remain on the fence. Trump has also managed to keep his share of backers intact since the same poll was carried out in May, while Biden’s support has dropped from 42%. 

A poll found that 53% of Americans dislike President Biden, 70% disapprove Congress and 44% approve the Supreme Court. The same poll found that Biden is now at 40%, an increase of two points since last month. 

The midterm elections are scheduled for November. 46% intend to vote in favor of their Republican congressional candidate. 43% plan to support the Democrats. The numbers have not changed much since the last month. Republicans hold a 33% advantage over Democrats on 45%, 42%, respectively.

Poll draws grim prediction for Biden’s re-election – The Hill

Trump, the ex-President, has hinted repeatedly that he might run for reelection in 2024. However, he has not yet announced his candidacy. 

In a statement last year, President Biden stated that he would seek reelection. Vice President Kamala Harris was reportedly his running mate. Some Democrats question whether the incumbent President Biden should be allowed to vote in this election. Citing “dozens of frustrated Democratic officials, members of Congress and voters,” the New York Times suggested in a report last month that incumbent President Joe Biden could be replaced as the party’s nominee in 2024. The Times refused to name any alternative Democratic candidate who hadn’t lost to Biden during the 2020 primary.

According to a Harvard CAPS Harris Poll, only 29% want Biden’s reelection in 2024. 71% were against his possible return. 

Donald Trump has single-handedly killed his own 2024 chances

Nonetheless, according to the Emerson College survey, most Democratic voters (64%) still believe Biden should be the party’s nominee in 2024, while 36% are not happy with this prospect. The GOP’s early favorite would be former President Trump, 55% saying that they would vote for him in the Republican primaries. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is widely considered to be a potential nominee should Trump retire. He got 20%.

Both the US Senate as well as House of Representatives are currently controlled by Democrats. However, unless they find a way of raising the public’s confidence and provide solutions for a number of issues facing everyday Americans, the party could end up losing at least one chamber to the Republicans if polls are any indication of how people intend to vote in the 2022 midterms.

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