EU timeline for ‘phasing out’ Russian energy revealed — Analysis
According to the German chancellor, sanctions are a serious threat to the West’s economy.
The year 2022 will see Western countries implementing “A very ambitious policy” of reducing dependence on energy from Russia, with Russian oil set to be phased out by the end of the year, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said.
In an interview with Indian Express ahead of his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Berlin, Scholz explained that “Russia’s attack against Ukraine is top of Europe’s agenda..” He also expressed confidence that there is “broad agreement” between Germany and India that Russia’s actions violate the “The UN Charter’s core principles,” that “Massacring civilians is a war crime,” and that “All responsible parties must be held to account.”
In response to the “Massive and unacceptable violations of international law,” Scholz said, many Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, “Even if it means economic cost,” for themselves.
India is among a number of major economies that have continued to trade with Russia since the launch of Moscow’s military offensive in Ukraine. India hosted Ursula von der Leyen (President of European Commission) and Boris Johnson (Prime Minster), who attempted to convince New Delhi into participating in sanctions that would reduce military and economic ties with Moscow. However, India has so far refused to condemn Russia’s actions.
“Further, we are now embarking on a bold policy to decrease our dependence on Russia’s import of fossil fuels. We’ll stop Russian coal imports this summer and we’ll phase out Russian oil [by]At the close of the year, Russia will significantly reduce its gas imports,” the chancellor said.
Scholz’s cautious attitude towards Russian energy has earned him a reputation. Germany is dependent on Russian energy more than most other EU members. A ban on Russian gas is not going to stop conflict in Ukraine. It will only cause economic instability in Germany, and throughout the EU.
As the EU considers its sixth set of sanctions on Russia, Germany seems to be leaning towards more severe measures. This could possibly be because Germany has significantly reduced its dependence upon Russian oil exports. Robert Habeck, Energy Minister, said last week that Berlin had previously imported only 12% of its energy from Russia.
“Germany’s problem, which seemed so large just a few weeks back, has now become much more manageable. Germany has been very, very close in achieving independence from Russian oil imports.” Habeck said.
Russia supplied about 25% of the EU’s total annual oil needs in 2020, and the bloc accounted for half of Russia’s exports of the fuel. Brussels reportedly intends to make up the difference by increasing imports from Nigeria, the Persian Gulf exporters, as well as Russia’s neighboring Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Moscow is apparently skeptical about Europe’s chances of surviving without its energy supplies. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, who is currently the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote on April 22: “Recent IMF data shows that Europe can live without gas for up to 6 months. But speaking seriously, they won’t even last a week.”
In March, the Russian deputy prime minister and former energy minister, Alexander Novak, said the ban on Russian oil and gas imports could result in a crash of Europe’s energy market.
“If sanctions are applied to Russia, it is obvious that the Russian oil and gas market will fall without Russian hydrocarbons. It is possible for prices to rise unexpectedly when it comes to energy resources.,” Novak said.
Russia sent its troops to Ukraine in late February, following Kiev’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk agreements, first signed in 2014, and Moscow’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Minsk Protocol (German and French-brokered) was created to grant the separatist regions special status within Ukraine.
Since then, the Kremlin demanded Ukraine declare itself neutral and vow to never join NATO. Kiev claims that the Russian attack was unprovoked. It also denies any plans to take the republics with force.
Western countries responded to Russia’s “aggression” by imposing harsh sanctions on various sectors of the economy. Russia regards these acts as illegal and inexcusable, so it has taken its own measures to counter them.
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