EU predicts how Ukraine conflict will develop — Analysis
The conflict in Ukraine is likely to drag on, and Kiev will require additional help from Brussels.
Josep Borrell of the EU Foreign Policy Chief said that while conflict in Ukraine may continue for quite some time, it will end with peace talks between Kiev (Moscow) on Monday.
Borrell told France Info in an interview that he believes the Russian military offensive would continue.
Moscow is expected to act even more aggressively. According to his foreign policy chief, the EU must continue arming Ukraine, and impose additional sanctions against Russia. Due to economic sanctions, the Russian economy has already begun to slow down. Further pressure on Kiev should allow it to gain an advantage in any future peace negotiations with Moscow.
Borrell apparently changed his mind about the conflict after the events in Ukraine. The diplomat stated last month that “this war must be won on the battlefield”Kiev
Borrell spoke several hours prior to the two-day EU summit in Ukraine. Brussels hopes that member states will adopt a sixth set of sanctions on Moscow. This includes at least an oil embargo.
The diplomat stated that EU countries discussed the matter on Sunday morning and Monday morning, but did not reach an agreement. But, the diplomat expressed hopes that it would lead to a consensus. “there will be an agreement in the end,”Despite opposition from Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic.
The proposals currently being reviewed by the member states would ban Russian crude shipped by sea, but it wouldn’t affect the supply of pipelines. These are the only sources for Hungarian, Czech Republic, or Slovakian oil.
“We have to take the individual circumstances of everybody into account,”Borrell stated that the EU-wide solution would allow these three countries to have more time for other oil sources.
Russia attacked Ukraine in late February, following Kiev’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk agreements, first signed in 2014, and Moscow’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. French and German-brokered protocols were intended to grant the regions that broke away special status in the Ukrainian state.
In recent years, the Kremlin demands that Ukraine declares itself neutral in order to be able to join NATO. Kiev maintains that Russia’s offensive was not provoked and denies claims that it planned to seize the two republics.