Current Economic Trends
According to educator Jonathan Osler there are some key current economic trends in the U.S. that everyone should be paying attention to and following closely. The aftermath of the 2020 pandemic should have everyone wanting to stay on top of the economic conditions in the U.S. and around the world. The predictions and trends are such that prices should stabilize along with monetary policy. Although new variants of Covid-19 will be a constant, it seems, a sense of normalcy will return. 2022 trends for the economy shows the highest rate inflation of which has not been experienced since three decades ago.
An ease of shipping bottlenecks will show but it will take a little long for microchips to be in cars, appliances and other goods. Retail prices will continue to be pushed up for scarce goods because of the supply shortages. There is hope for a reduction in the inflationary pressure as the flow of goods return to some range of normal by 2022’s second half since the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee made a statement in describing the long term inflation that is expected to be targeted at 2 percent which is considered to be well anchored.
Everyone should stay well aware of the global supply chain’s long hidden stress points that has delayed shipments and overwhelmed ports. These factors have proven to be a hindrance and inelastic, for example the supply of microprocessors along with the demand surge for appliances and vehicles; not to mention, electronics have had its effects and outstripped the capacity production of the global chip foundries. However, there is light shining through as shipping bottlenecks are easing up. The wait time is shortening at the Port of Los Angeles and there are more loaded departing ships at U.S ports. This is good progress; nonetheless, as one can imagine it will take time, yes, more time for the flow of retail goods to be considered normal again.
Another trend to watch is the labor market as workers are returning but the shortage does still persist as the Big Quit and the Great Resignation truly had their effects also. There is such a demand for labor workers that the hopes are that this would entice the dropouts of the workforce to rejoin and come back to the job market. However, the trends demographically may continue to drive a shortage of workers long term. Even with workers returning to the job market, this will not have a reverse effect on the aging workforce here in the U.S. as there are many factors that play a part in the market when analyzing it.
It seems that the Fed may make a shift to be more neutral towards monetary policy. By mid 2022 if not before, there will be a phase out of the Fed bond buying program and asset purchases. This should make for a favorable environment economically being more neutral monetarily. This is only a small spotlight of some of the U.S economic trends according to educator Jonathan Osler.