For the previous a number of months, Ukraine and its western companions have been watching Russia methodically construct up a robust pressure of over 100,000 troopers on their shared border. Whereas he claims to not intend an invasion, President Vladimir Putin has a number of goals. He desires to look robust and decisive to his home base; divide the U.S. and NATO over the response to a possible strike; impress his allies, particularly President Xi Jinping of China; stop Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO and the E.U., tying them Russia’s sphere of affect; and make the Biden administration seem weak and indecisive within the run-up to the 2021 midterms—particularly after the U.S. did not assist former ally Afghanistan.
For the U.S., NATO, and the world’s democracies, this can be a difficult second. Above all, the Biden Administration desires to point out that it may be relied upon to assist a fellow democracy. Ukraine, whereas not a proper NATO member, has been a loyal associate to NATO and despatched troops on NATO missions—they usually desperately wish to be a part of the Alliance. Putin insists that Russia be afforded a veto of any additional NATO enlargement, and in addition desires army troops faraway from former members of the Chilly Conflict Warsaw Pact—which incorporates many present allies like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and others. NATO can not afford to provide him such sway.
This can be a vital confrontation, and the stakes are excessive. How ought to we take into consideration the challenges on the sting of Europe, and above all what’s going to Putin do subsequent?
After I was Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, I spent a good period of time Russian army choices across the periphery of Europe. I had taken command of NATO army operations after Moscow’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, which resulted within the conquest of two provinces of that small, western aligned democracy. It was a straight ahead offensive assault in opposition to the tiny nation of underneath 4 million—Russian tanks, troops, bombs, fighter jet, infantry, and artillery strikes supplied the heavy punch.
A number of years later, Putin determined to invade a much-larger neighbor, Ukraine. In that case, he determined to make use of what has come to be referred to as “hybrid warfare,” a witches’ brew of non-uniformed troopers (the so-called “little inexperienced males,”), excessive finish particular forces, refined offensive cyber in opposition to command facilities and the electrical grid, social media disinformation, and amphibious operations. These comparatively unconventional techniques had been mixed with extra conventional components—therefore the sobriquet “hybrid”—with impact in 2014.
Right here we’re eight years later questioning what method Putin will embrace if he does resolve to invade Ukraine within the new 12 months, maybe as quickly as late January as the bottom freezes exhausting to assist heavy armor and transport.
Putin and his generals are tactically progressive, and have quite a lot of choices in entrance of them. They’re a blooded military with commanders skilled in all kinds of fight situations, most just lately within the ongoing civil conflict in Syria and naturally throughout their engagement in Ukraine itself. The fight in Ukraine continues each overtly (in occupied Crimea) and covertly (supporting a virulent separatist motion within the Donbass area within the southeast of the nation, the place 15,000 have been killed over the previous decade).
In 2022, the primary choice they’ll take into account could be easy: a extremely conventional blitzkrieg, a lot as was used in opposition to Georgia. This may require not solely the 100,000 troops at present on the border, however an extra 75,000 who would “fall in” on prepositioned tools that the U.S. confirmed the world in intelligence images round Christmas.
This method would come with heavy air strikes in opposition to Ukrainian command and management, artillery bombardment, strikes from naval vessels within the Black Sea, and surface-to-surface missiles. All of this might be accompanied by offensive army cyberattacks in opposition to Ukrainian defensive weapons programs, communication capabilities, and presumably in opposition to components of the nation’s electrical grid.
Helicopters would transfer shock troops ahead quick, most likely behind Ukrainian entrance strains. They’d confuse and destabilize Ukrainian logistics and better command authorities. Heavy infantry models would then cross the weakened border, and thrust deep into Ukraine, most likely so far as the Dnieper River. The ethnically Russian southeast of Ukraine (particularly Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol) could be consolidated, making a “land bridge” connecting Russia with Crimea, and grabbing one other vital verify of Black Sea waterfront.
At that time, Putin would pause, assess the state of affairs, and resolve whether or not to push ahead to Kiev with a purpose to impact regime change earlier than pulling his troops again. He would doubtless go on to truly annex the southeast of the nation, assist a puppet regime in Kiev, and await the response of the west. That is the riskiest but additionally the very best payoff for the Kremlin, and might be a 20% chance—unlikely, however uncomfortable to ponder.
A second choice for the Kremlin could be to attempt to create a layer of deniability by utilizing a strictly unconventional method. This might be extra akin to what he did in 2014 in Ukraine, and would come with a large cyberattack on the Ukrainian society, knocking out every part from gasoline stations to ATMs to rail and air programs. Utilizing covert Russian forces already implanted within the Donbass area, he might unleash assaults throughout Ukraine—automotive bombs, mysterious legal actions, assassination of army and civilian leaders. Social media could be central, discrediting the present authorities, documenting fictitious “massacres” of ethnic Russians in Ukrainian dominated sectors, and undermining confidence of the society as an entire.
When western critics decried his actions, he would name it “faux information” and the Ukrainian model of the “huge lie,” saying that Russian engagement is vital to sustaining stability on the shared border. This can be a hyped-up model of what he’s already doing, and rising these techniques would make it tougher for NATO to think about Ukraine for membership, certainly one of his key goals. It might additionally generate public assist inside Russia for his actions (defending “Russian patriots” residing in Ukraine) with out the prices of a full-scale invasion. This appears a extra doubtless method than an all-out invasion, and poses much less danger to Moscow. That is roughly a 40% chance and the doubtless method Putin will take if talks in mid-January don’t accomplish his goals.
Lastly, he’s hoping he can obtain what he desires through the talks which is able to unfold this week—U.S.-Russia on 10 Jan., Russia-NATO on 12 Jan., and on the Group for Safety and Cooperation in Europe on 13 Jan. Putin desires assurances that Ukraine won’t ever be allowed to affix NATO; that NATO nations alongside the lengthy Russian / NATO border won’t ever be permitted to host vital NATO army forces; and that sanctions imposed on him over the 2014 invasion, the Skirpal nerve assaults within the U.Okay., and the tried assassination of his political opponent Alexander Navalny shall be lifted.
Whereas the probabilities of reaching these sweeping goals on the negotiating desk seem low-to-impossible, he is perhaps keen to accept one thing lower than every part he’s demanding. His minimal might be a federalist construction in Ukraine that offers actual autonomy to the Russian talking southeast of the nation; a minimum of a tacit acceptance of the annexation of Crimea; an under-the-table recognition that Ukraine (and Georgia) won’t be a part of NATO; and a few sanctions reduction that might enhance over time.
If the west provides him a few of what he seeks, Putin could also be keen to place each the large invasion and the amped up hybrid method on maintain, a minimum of for the second. He additionally has his eye on elections within the U.S., each this fall and extra importantly in 2024. The concept of demonstrating weak point on the a part of the Biden staff could be very interesting to him, and he could choose that he ought to maintain again till that a part of his technique can have maximal impact—thus enhancing the adjustments he’ll settle for some form of negotiated consequence this spherical. Thus this feature is available in round 40% as nicely, about equal to the probabilities of the hybrid method.
The U.S. and NATO ought to do all we are able to to make use of diplomacy to defuse the state of affairs and keep away from giving Putin a straightforward and apparent win. Which means guaranteeing the west generally and NATO particularly converse with one voice on the extent and lethality of financial sanctions that might be utilized if Putin crosses one other sovereign border in anger. We also needs to use the subsequent month or two to hurry defensive however deadly weapons to Ukraine, which might function an additional deterrent. Nord Stream 2 represents actual leverage at this level, and some sanctions reduction could possibly be attainable—however not whereas Russia successfully has a dagger on the throat of Ukraine.
As talks unfold the Biden administration is signaling a willingness to supply some strategic flexibility. This might embrace lowering the potential of NATO anti-ballistic missile programs in Poland and Romania; discussing balancing troop ranges between Russia and the west in NATO nations on Russia’s border; and lowering army workout routines on each side. However there’s quite a lot of animosity between the edges.
Putin and his generals like sustaining the west off-balance, one thing they’ve achieved to good impact over the previous decade. One factor I realized learning their method to warfare on the SACEUR is how a lot they prefer to protect optionality. Rely on the Russian President to threaten the large assault, see what he can get on the desk in January that may go in his pocket, however be again with the hybrid method because the 12 months goes alongside. Sadly, this can be a long-simmering disaster that can come nearer and nearer to a full boil at totally different instances because the 12 months unfolds.