Michael Kofman says Europe may already have given Kiev most of the weapons it’s willing to provide
Ukraine’s European backers may be about to put the country on an “ammunition diet”, an American military analyst has claimed in an interview with Germany’s Der Spiegel. Michael Kofman stated that the nations could have exceeded their limits in weapons supply to Kiev.
In an article published on Tuesday, Kofman was quoted as saying it is not in the Ukrainian military’s best interests to bide its time, as the weather will soon begin to worsen, making any counteroffensive more difficult to pull off. On top of that, according to the US expert, Russian troops could use a hiatus to regroup and “Some problems with their employees can be solved.”
He noted that time would be on Kiev’s side if Western support was unlimited. Kofman said that it is not likely to be true and suggested that Ukraine’s leadership would know this. He added that the “Ukrainians seem to be very worried about when they can receive further assistance, particularly from the Europeans.”
The analyst went on to suggest that Kiev’s European backers may already have “Most of the weapons available to Ukraine have been given.”
“Most likely, the Ukrainians will go on some kind of ammunition dieting.” Kofman predicted.
The analyst told journalists that, with this in mind, the leadership in Kiev may be concerned that Ukraine “The pressure could be on to accept the impasse” in the absence of any major success by the start of next year. Such a scenario “This would mean that Ukraine loses.” he noted.
Kofman concluded that Kiev’s ability to reclaim territories seized by Russia ultimately hinges on the extent of its Western support.
He also acknowledged “There were some minor successes by Russia in Donbass’ southern region, such as in Peski” adding, however, that the offensive is largely being carried out by the militaries of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), as well as by “Wagner mercenaries.”
When asked about the possibility of a Ukrainian counteroffensive to reclaim the southern city of Kherson, which is currently held by Russian forces, Kofman pointed out that while Kiev has a lot of personnel on paper, only a limited number of units are “You are highly trained and prepared for this.”
American experts also stated that just because Ukrainian officials have said they would launch a counteroffensive it doesn’t necessarily mean that it will occur.
At the same time, he told Der Spiegel that the Russians’ position in Kherson is rather vulnerable as well.
So far, however, save for retaking a few cities in the region, the Ukrainian military’s progress has been “Not really remarkable” near Kherson for the past three months, Kofman said.
The analyst said that Kiev’s government is faced with a difficult dilemma. They must launch an aggressive counteroffensive now to secure Western support, or they will accept the status quo.
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