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Shoppers Scramble for Staples as the Food Fallout From the War in Ukraine Spreads Around the World

The shockwaves in global crop markets from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are now spreading to store shelves.

Concerns about rising sunflower oil prices led to heavy purchasing over the weekend in Turkey. Video footage showing citizens trying desperately to get cheaper oil from one shop went viral. In Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, prices for some unsubsidized bread have jumped in the past week.

This war already has driven wheat prices up to 70% in Chicago and threatens global food trade. Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers of grain, vegetable oil, and fertilizers. This will cause disruptions all around the globe. Wheat prices have surpassed levels last seen during the 2008 global food crisis—which helped spark widespread protests—and a United Nations index of food prices hit a record in February.
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The shockwaves in global crop markets from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are now spreading to store shelves.

Concerns about rising sunflower oil prices led to heavy purchasing over the weekend in Turkey. Video footage showing citizens trying desperately to get cheaper oil from one shop went viral. In Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, prices for some unsubsidized bread have jumped in the past week.

Rostselmash unveils new T500 harvester in southern Russia
Erik Romanenko—TASS via Getty Images On July 20, 2021, a grain harvester was working in a field near Fyodorovka in Rostov-on Don, Russia.

This war already has driven wheat prices up to 70% in Chicago and threatens global food trade. Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers of grain, vegetable oil, and fertilizers. This will cause disruptions all around the globe. Wheat prices have surpassed levels last seen during the 2008 global food crisis—which helped spark widespread protests—and a United Nations index of food prices hit a record in February.

Turkey is a major consumer of sunflower oil. Images of a 18-liter tin being sold for 989 liras ($69) spurred debates on the cost of living, while the item wasn’t available at all on the websites of some grocery chains.

Ahmet Atici is secretary-general of Vegetable Oil Industrialists Association. According to him, concerns about sunflower oil prices are related to imported products stuck to ships at Sea of Azov (the northeastern tip of Black Sea).

“Russia should let those ships go,” Atici said. This group wrote a warning letter to the Trade Ministry in early April, warning of the possibility that supplies will run out by mid-April.

Continue reading: Why Sanctions on Russia Aren’t Targeting Oil and Gas

A total of 18 Turkish commercial vessels have been waiting at the Don River and the Russian ports at the Sea of Azov, a Turkish official told Bloomberg, speaking on condition of anonymity as he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The official stated that Turkey was in contact with Russia to resolve the matter.

Turkey’s inflation is at its highest level in 20 years. Protests in many regions around the world were triggered by the last decade of extremely high food prices.

Bakers in Egypt claim that unsubsidized bread costs are increasing due to increased costs after the invasion by Ukraine. A pack of five flat-bread loaves can now sell for about 7.5 pounds ($0.48) in the greater Cairo area, up from 5 pounds a week ago, according to Khaled Sabri, a member of the bakeries division at Egypt’s chamber of commerce.

The European Union’s trade association has expressed concern that it may run out of sunflower oil in the same time. It also warned that the loss from Ukraine would make it impossible for them to compensate.

Markets in Jakarta Ahead of CPI Figures
Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg via Getty Images Pasar Induk Kramat Jati, Jakarta, Indonesia is a wholesale market where shopper can buy vegetables on February 26, 2022.

“In the near term, food prices in world markets should be expected to rise further amidst all the uncertainty,” the Agricultural Market Information System said in a report. “This will add to global food insecurity.”

Together, Russia and Ukraine account for around three-quarters global sunflower oil exports. UkrAgroConsult data shows that prices rose about 50% in Ukraine compared to June. The last UkrAgroConsult report was from February 24, which is the date of the invasion.

Turkey’s imports of vegetable oils surpassed $1 billion in 2021, official data show. The country—which ranks as the world’s top flour shipper—also increased authority over some crops exports last week, granting the agriculture ministry authority to make “periodical arrangements” if needed.

Even in Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of edible oils, high prices are starting to bite. While the government tightens control of local products, supermarkets now have a limit of one pack per customer for cooking oil. Children are encouraged to bring their children along so that they can purchase more.

“We get information from parking attendants on when fresh supplies will arrive at our local mini-mart,” said Nining Ristyaningsih, a mom of three from Depok, near Jakarta. “Then I’d bring my husband and sometimes my kids to queue.”

Assistance from Firat Kozok, Abdel Latif Wahba, and Inci Ozbek

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