How Major Elections Around the World Will Shape Global Politics in 2022
E.U. saw significant improvements in 2021 after the elections. Angela Merkel, a long-serving leader of Germany for 16 years, was ousted by Chile as its president; a new millennial socialist was elected in Chile and Hondurans were awarded their first female president. However, in 2022 the fate of all major states of every continent will be in dispute as a result of two worldwide crises. The COVID-19 pandemic is growing more severe each week and an impending climate catastrophe. At least three democracies are expected to decide what happens to leaders or their kin, if they have a distinctly authoritarian bent.
Here’s a roundup of the key elections in the year ahead, listed in their likely running order:
Although India’s general election is not until 2024, upcoming state assembly votes could define the future of the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP). With over 200 million inhabitants, India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh will head to the polls in early 2022. Home to the constituency of the right-wing populist Prime Minister Narenda Modi, the state is part of the Hindi Belt of northern India, and a key indicator of the BJP’s popularity.
Under Modi’s leadership, the BJP has engineered Othering Muslims in India, opened religious wounds and gave rise to Hindu supremacist organisations.. Uttar Pradesh’s farmers have been a driving force behind Protests that lasted for a yearModi was forced to make a pledge to the nation in November. repeal divisive agricultural reform laws.
Modi had maintained that the laws—aimed at opening India’s agricultural markets to greater corporate participation—would have raised farmers’ incomes. According to analysts, the Prime Minister’s rare apology suggests the BJP is anxious about the state assembly elections, which will inevitably be read as a mid-term referendum on Modi’s rule.
South Korea’s election on March 9 will likely come down to whether voters still trust the Democratic Party after five years in power—despite Allegations of corruptionThere has been little progress in reconciling North Korea.
President of South Korea Moon Jae InLee Jae-myung is the Democratic ex-governor of the region around Seoul and must resign after only one term. Lee was a distant second to Yoon Seok, the former governor of the province around Seoul. Traditional conservative People Power PartyIn a recent pollThe range is 31%-42%
Yoon, the country’s former Prosecutor General, has said he’ll focus on strengthening The rule of law. Lee campaigned on the promise of introducing Basic income. But, accusations of Corruption and misuse of powerBoth candidates have taken the spotlight away from their policy positions.
History has not been kind to sitting French presidents–only one since 1988 has survived a re-election campaign. Yet, incumbent leader Emmanuel Macron has so far survived. Tops the Polls for 2022 Presidential Election.
The centrist defeated opponents of parties that had been dominating French politics for many decades when he stood in 2017 for the national election. Marine Le Pen, the alternative run-off candidate tried to make far-right National Rally parties more appealing to conservative voters.
Macron was victorious in an overwhelming victory. France will go to the polls on April 2nd with two candidates for anti-EU and anti-immigrant votes: Le Pen and Eric Zemmour, a former TV commentator. Nicknamed the “French Trump,” Zemmour said he’s running “so that our daughters don’t have to wear headscarves and our sons don’t have to be submissive”.
The major challenger may be Valérie Pécresse of the conservative Les Républicains party. An recent Ipsos/Sopra Seria pollShe was deemed the most likely candidate to face Macron in a race-off. This is required under French law, if no candidate gains a majority.
Macron is up against a formidable opponent. The former investment banker is viewed as elitist by some—having cut taxes on the wealthy, and Proposing an increase in fuel taxes that provoked protests from tens to thousands of workers with lower incomes2018 He is also boldly pro-E.U., and the union’s most prominent power broker with the departure of Merkel. He is fighting against the same fate as other centreist world leaders. “demagoguery”, Macron is banking that voters’ desire for pragmatism will lead him to a second five-year term.
The April elections will determine whether Hungary moves closer to authoritarianism, or pulls it away from the brink.
During his nearly 12 years as Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán has transformed the Eastern European nation of 10 million into a self-styled “illiberal democracy,” curtailing press freedom, eroding judicial independence, and introducing a raft of socially restrictive measures, including a recent ban on material seen to be promoting homosexuality. The E.U., which enforces democratic norms, has threatened Orbán with sanctions and Legal action.
Learn more Why a Children’s Book Is Becoming a Symbol of Resistance in Hungary’s Fight Over LGBT Rights
In previous elections, Orbán’s political opposition was divided. Things are now different. Six major opposition parties will set aside their rivalries and unite behind one candidate, Péter Márki-Zay, a small-town Catholic mayor who has won support across the political spectrum for his brand of anti-corruption conservatism.
The United Opposition, if recent polls are any indication, is now the only credible opposition to Fidesz since its 2010 election. The battle for Hungary’s undecided voters and jaded Fidesz supporters has begun—while Orbán showers voters with tax rebates and social security payments, Márkari-Zay is galvanizing supporters around a “coalition of the clean”.
Rodrigo Duterte might be expelled from another term, but his populist brand is still alive in Southeast Asia.
Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.—the namesake and only son of the late Philippine kleptocrat and dictator ousted in 1986—has teamed up with Duerte’s daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, to form a ticket that consolidates two power political dynasties. Marcos is the presidential candidate; Duterte Carpio will be vice-presidential.
Despite leading in many polls, Marcos’ victory is far from assured. At the very least, he faces four serious challengers: Manny Pacquiao, a former senator and vice president of the opposition Leni Robertredo. He also fights several disqualification casesBefore the Philippine electoral committee involving an earlier conviction for failing to file tax returns.
Critics fear that a victory for Marcos and Duterte-Carpio would only worsen the culture of impunity for extrajudicial killings and human rights abuses that characterized Duterte’s bloody war on drugs. In addition to reducing press freedom, he abandoned an alliance with the U.S. in order to befriend China.
It’s been a turbulent period in Australian politics since the last election in 2019: an initially sluggish vaccine rollout, contentious climate policies, and diplomatic embarrassmentsThe prospects for the centre-right Liberal/National Coalition have been hampered.
According to Polling by The Guardian, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at its lowest since he vacationed in Hawaii in December 2019 while the country was ravaged by devastating bushfires. The “Black Summer” of 2019-20 claimed 33 lives, over 3,000 homes and more than 20 million hectares (49 million acres) of land.
Fires are out Directly linked to the effects of global warming, and Australia’s environmental record has come under increasing scrutiny. The country is the world’s leading exporter of coal, and while other countries move to sever ties with fossil fuels, Morrison Promised the opposite– famously bringing a lump of bituminous to a parliamentary debate. He announced that Australia would have net zero carbon emissions in 2050. The law does not allow for the target to be enshrined in it.
While Morrison’s Liberal Party is still the most trusted by voters to deliver national security and economic prosperity, Anthony Albanese’s Labor is now ranked higherConcerning international relations and climate change. According to polls, the race is tight. The AustralianA majority of voters think Labor will win. Morrison is still the favourite candidate to be prime minister.
Colombia’s 2018 presidential election saw the far-right candidate Ivan Duque defeat his far-left rival, fGustavo Petro is a senator and former guerrilla leader. He will be running for the presidency. As the nation votes in March’s congressional elections and in June for a presidential election, it could be tipped in our favor. Duque is now the country’s least popular president since polling began in 1994, at Over 70% of disapprovalPetro appears stronger than ever.
There is still hope for the center. Moderate candidate Sergio Farjado Petro narrowly missed the final round of the 2018 presidential election. He was second by one point. Margin of 1.3% from total votes cast. According to Bloomberg reports on analysts at Control Risks, a risk consulting firm., the right will likely use the crisis in Venezuela as “a fear tactic against leftist policies—a strategy that has historically shaped the political feelings and opinion of many right-wing voters.” This could push undecided voters towards more centrist candidates.
Term limits mean Duque can’t run again in 2022. His party, the Democratic Center, will field a U.K.-educated former Finance Minister, Óscar Iván Zuluaga, who faces a tough fight convincing Colombians to vote for a continuation of leadership, given The wave of protests against rising taxes, corruption and healthcare reformThe government proposed the idea, and it was implemented in April 2021. A U.N. reportWe found out that the police were responsible for 28 of these deaths.
Learn more ‘There’s No Easy Way Out of This.’ How Anti-Government Protests in Colombia Escalated into Deadly Clashes with Police
Since the 1992 introduction of multiparty politics in Kenya, the country’s politics have been split along tribal divisions rather than political ideologies, and Frequently The legacy of ethnic violence has tarnished it. It was true for the 2017 electionThe following was required:
Afterward, president Uhuru Kenyatta, son of the country’s founding president, made peace with rival Raila Odinga. Kenyatta also proposed changes to Kenya’s constitution to promote power sharing among ethnic groups. However, nothing is certain. This is May the country’s High Court ruled that the amendments were illegalKenyatta was accused of using these changes to oust his rising deputy William Ruto. Ruto has emerged as the party leader after Kenyatta fell out with him publicly; Kenyatta is not allowed to run for another term due to term limits.
August is the general election. The general election is in August. Odinga leads Ruto in polls by 15%. But, between high living costs, poverty, hunger, COVID-19 pandemic and corruption Only 19% of Kenyans are employedTheir country believes it is moving in the right directions.
Jair Bolsonaro, who was elected president of 2018 has a reputation for promoting denialism. Climate crisisThe pandemic followed. While dismissing COVID-19 as a “little flu,” the populist presided over the second highest official death toll in the world. In October 2021, Brazilian senators voted to recommend charging the president with crimes against humanity, citing pursuit of herd immunity policy and spreading COVID-19 disinformation.
Bolsanaro was a supporter for the military dictatorship in Brazil that ruled from 1964 to 1985. It also violated judicial independence and encroached upon Indigenous land rights to rid the Amazon. With record levels of inflation and drought, Bolsanaro is a supporter of the military dictatorship that ruled Brazil from 1964 to 1985.The approval ratings for the president fell to an all-time low. 19%Late November
“Only God” can remove him from power, Bolsanaro told tens of thousands of supporters in September.The election will be held in October 2022. Bolsonaro is likely to face former leftist president Luis Inácio Lula da SilvaHis 2017 corruption conviction was overturned by the Supreme Court in April.
Lula is the candidate for the Leftist Workers Party. However, he’s also divisive. However, recent polls suggest that if elections were held today, Lula would win 46% of the votes to Bolsonaro’s 23%. Having condemned Bolsonaro’s “genocidal” handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Lula is promising voters relative moderation and stability.
Two years after Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in 2016, U.S. citizens will return to the polls on November 8th 2022 to elect representatives to the House of Representatives, and one third of senators. Midterm elections are traditionally bad news for the President whose term they bisect: in the past seven decades the president’s party has lost on average twenty-five House seatsIn them.
Biden’s 42% approval rating, GallupThe Democrat’s average COVID-19 death rate is less than any previous president, except Donald Trump. The Democrat is burdened by the world’s highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths, rising inflation, a A tarnished reputation in diplomatic circlesYou can also find out more about a Building Back Better that has not passed despite his party controlling—for now—both the House and the Senate.
Democrats could point to Trump’s promise of a huge pandemic bill and an infrastructure package with bipartisan support. However, candidates who intend to run will instead focus on expanding climate investments and benefits through Build Back Better.You should be following The goal is damage limitationKeep an eye out for any midterm developments that might give you wind. Biden’s arch rivalFor 2024.
— Reporting by Chad de Guzman AndAmy Gunia