I have done a host of media interviews over this past week on the ruling by
the Massachusetts Supreme Court on so called “gay marriage.” Every single
reporter asked the same thing. Will gay marriage be an issue in the 2004
elections?

The answer is not a simple one. First, it depends on who the Democratic
nominee is and what position he takes on the issue.

Secondly, it depends on the Bush Administration and what it is willing to
say about the matter next year.

Thirdly, it depends on the Congress and what action might be forthcoming in
the form of a Constitutional amendment.

Fourthly, it depends on the pro-family coalition and just how much effort it
is willing to put into a national debate on the issue.

Most of the Democrats running, with the exception of the lowest tier
candidates (Dennis Kucinich, Carol Mosely Braun and Al Sharpton) say while
they support Vermont-style civil unions they oppose gay marriage. The test
for some of them will be when they have to vote on a Constitutional
amendment on that issue. If they vote “no” on a Constitutional amendment, it
will be hard for them to credibly maintain that they are against gay
marriage.

The Bush Administration is not terribly comfortable with the issue. The
President is a genuine compassionate conservative and does not want to come
across as overly harsh. The President needs to be reminded that it is
possible to hate the sin and love the sinner. Practicing sodomy is still a
sin, the U.S. Supreme Court notwithstanding. It is not necessary to stand in
judgment of anyone by taking a strong stand that, as Governor Mitt Romney of
Massachusetts has made clear, is in tune with thousands of years of recorded
history.

It is not clear what Congress will do. Senators are considering language for
a Constitutional amendment that would make it clear that civil unions are
not marriage as well as insisting that true marriage is between one man and
one woman. Senators are interested in the strongest language possible but
have made it clear to the pro-family movement that they want to pass an
amendment. They are not just involved with this issue for the purpose of a
debate. Surprisingly, one Senator who really wants to move on an amendment
is Gordon Smith of Oregon. It is interesting that Mormons on both coasts,
elected in the most liberal states in the nation, are showing real
leadership on the issue.

As to the pro-family movement, some are serious about passing an amendment.
Others such as Bill Bennett, say we should have a national debate in lieu of
Congressional action unless we can get Congress to outlaw civil unions and
not just gay marriage.
My guess is that if Constitutional amendments begin to move in Congress, the
pro-family movement will likely get behind them. The question is how much
behind them? Some leaders say that their people won’t go all out unless the
strongest possible language is being pushed. Others believe if their
leadership blesses the Congressional action, their folks will go along.

The pro-family coalition, which includes such diverse groups as the Southern
Baptists and the Knights of Columbus, has powerhouse potential. Rev. Don
Wildmon, whose ministry includes the ownership and operation of a couple
hundred radio stations, has said that when the pro-family movement is
united, it is a force for good that can’t be outdone by even the very
powerful homosexual lobby.

Right now, public opinion is rising against gay marriage. About 60% are
saying they oppose it. Among those who attend church regularly, the number
is upwards of 80%. Intensity most often determines the outcome in the
political process. The homosexual lobby is intense on this issue. So is the
pro-family community. This will be a test for the pro-family coalition. Do
they believe in the family strong enough to go all out to defeat those
forces determined to destroy the family as we know it?

“God is on our side”, one of the leaders of the movement intoned at a recent
meeting. Taking a leaf from Ronald Reagan, I told her and the group, “Better
we should worry that we’re on God’s side.” I believe in this instance we
are, and if that is the case perhaps we will be able to enlist His power to
help us along. It is going to take God’s strength and power for right to
prevail.

Paul M. Weyrich is Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Foundation.